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Llanera vs Condal — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Llanera
Llanera
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Condal
Condal
11/5/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 9Campo Municipal de Fútbol Pepe Quimarán

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Llanera67%
×Draw20%
Condal13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Llanera
2.02
Condal
0.73

Llanera creates 177% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 77 away

creates per match

Llanera
2.27
Condal
0.66

allows per match

Llanera
0.80
Condal
1.77

finishing

Llanera+0.00on par
Condal+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Llanera ↓

Condal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Llanera or draw
87%
Llanera or Condal
80%
Draw or Condal
33%

Winning margin

Llanera wins by 2+
42%
Condal wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Llanera 1+ goals
87%
Llanera 2+ goals
60%
Llanera 3+ goals
33%
Condal 1+ goals
52%
Condal 2+ goals
17%
Condal 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Llanera (draw refunded)
84%
Condal (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Llanera at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.80 · 75 matches

Condal away — creates 0.66, concedes 1.77 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Llanera attack 2.27 + Condal defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 2.02

Condal attack 0.66 + Llanera defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Llanera scores more
67%
level
20%
Condal scores more
13%

Llanera at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Llanera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2: Llanera 3–0 Condal

Llanera beat Condal 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on November 5, 2023.

The match was played at Campo Municipal de Fútbol Pepe Quimarán in Llanera.