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Llagostera vs Villarreal II — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Llagostera
Llagostera
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Villarreal II
Villarreal II
3/9/2022Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 22Estadio Nou Municipal de Palamós

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Llagostera29%
×Draw30%
Villarreal II41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Llagostera
0.93
Villarreal II
1.15

Villarreal II creates 24% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 57 away

creates per match

Llagostera
0.79
Villarreal II
1.19

allows per match

Llagostera
1.11
Villarreal II
1.07

finishing

Llagostera+0.00on par
Villarreal II+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Llagostera ↓

Villarreal II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Llagostera or draw
59%
Llagostera or Villarreal II
70%
Draw or Villarreal II
71%

Winning margin

Llagostera wins by 2+
10%
Villarreal II wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Llagostera 1+ goals
61%
Llagostera 2+ goals
24%
Llagostera 3+ goals
7%
Villarreal II 1+ goals
68%
Villarreal II 2+ goals
32%
Villarreal II 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Llagostera (draw refunded)
42%
Villarreal II (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Llagostera at home — creates 0.79, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

Villarreal II away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.07 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Llagostera attack 0.79 + Villarreal II defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.93

Villarreal II attack 1.19 + Llagostera defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Llagostera scores more
29%
level
30%
Villarreal II scores more
41%

Villarreal II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Villarreal II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Llagostera 0 – 0 Villarreal II

Llagostera and Villarreal II drew 0-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on March 9, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Nou Municipal de Palamós in Palamós.