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Llagostera vs Ucam Murcia — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Llagostera
Llagostera
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Ucam Murcia
Ucam Murcia
5/7/2022Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 35Estadio Nou Municipal de Palamós

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Llagostera43%
×Draw28%
Ucam Murcia29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Llagostera
1.27
Ucam Murcia
1.00

Llagostera creates 27% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

creates per match

Llagostera
0.79
Ucam Murcia
0.89

allows per match

Llagostera
1.11
Ucam Murcia
1.74

finishing

Llagostera+0.00on par
Ucam Murcia+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Llagostera ↓

Ucam Murcia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Llagostera or draw
71%
Llagostera or Ucam Murcia
72%
Draw or Ucam Murcia
57%

Winning margin

Llagostera wins by 2+
19%
Ucam Murcia wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Llagostera 1+ goals
72%
Llagostera 2+ goals
36%
Llagostera 3+ goals
14%
Ucam Murcia 1+ goals
63%
Ucam Murcia 2+ goals
26%
Ucam Murcia 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Llagostera (draw refunded)
59%
Ucam Murcia (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Llagostera at home — creates 0.79, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

Ucam Murcia away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.74 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Llagostera attack 0.79 + Ucam Murcia defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.27

Ucam Murcia attack 0.89 + Llagostera defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Llagostera scores more
43%
level
28%
Ucam Murcia scores more
29%

Llagostera at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Llagostera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Llagostera 3–0 Ucam Murcia

Llagostera beat Ucam Murcia 3-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on May 7, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Nou Municipal de Palamós in Palamós.