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Llagostera vs Sevilla Atletico — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Llagostera
Llagostera
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sevilla Atletico
Sevilla Atletico
4/6/2022Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 28Estadio Nou Municipal de Palamós

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Llagostera42%
×Draw30%
Sevilla Atletico28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Llagostera
1.16
Sevilla Atletico
0.88

Llagostera creates 32% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 57 away

creates per match

Llagostera
0.79
Sevilla Atletico
0.65

allows per match

Llagostera
1.11
Sevilla Atletico
1.53

finishing

Llagostera+0.00on par
Sevilla Atletico+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Llagostera ↓

Sevilla Atletico →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Llagostera or draw
72%
Llagostera or Sevilla Atletico
70%
Draw or Sevilla Atletico
58%

Winning margin

Llagostera wins by 2+
18%
Sevilla Atletico wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Llagostera 1+ goals
69%
Llagostera 2+ goals
32%
Llagostera 3+ goals
11%
Sevilla Atletico 1+ goals
59%
Sevilla Atletico 2+ goals
22%
Sevilla Atletico 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Llagostera (draw refunded)
60%
Sevilla Atletico (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Llagostera at home — creates 0.79, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

Sevilla Atletico away — creates 0.65, concedes 1.53 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Llagostera attack 0.79 + Sevilla Atletico defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.16

Sevilla Atletico attack 0.65 + Llagostera defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Llagostera scores more
42%
level
30%
Sevilla Atletico scores more
28%

Llagostera at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Llagostera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Llagostera 0–0 Sevilla Atletico

Llagostera and Sevilla Atletico drew 0-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on April 6, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Nou Municipal de Palamós in Palamós.