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Llagostera vs San Fernando CD — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Llagostera
Llagostera
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
San Fernando CD
San Fernando CD
5/21/2022Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 37Estadio Nou Municipal de Palamós

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Llagostera38%
×Draw29%
San Fernando CD34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Llagostera
1.15
San Fernando CD
1.07

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 38 away

creates per match

Llagostera
0.79
San Fernando CD
1.03

allows per match

Llagostera
1.11
San Fernando CD
1.50

finishing

Llagostera+0.00on par
San Fernando CD+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Llagostera ↓

San Fernando CD →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Llagostera or draw
66%
Llagostera or San Fernando CD
71%
Draw or San Fernando CD
62%

Winning margin

Llagostera wins by 2+
16%
San Fernando CD wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Llagostera 1+ goals
68%
Llagostera 2+ goals
32%
Llagostera 3+ goals
11%
San Fernando CD 1+ goals
66%
San Fernando CD 2+ goals
29%
San Fernando CD 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Llagostera (draw refunded)
53%
San Fernando CD (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Llagostera at home — creates 0.79, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

San Fernando CD away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.50 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Llagostera attack 0.79 + San Fernando CD defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.15

San Fernando CD attack 1.03 + Llagostera defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Llagostera scores more
38%
level
29%
San Fernando CD scores more
34%

Llagostera at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Llagostera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Llagostera vs San Fernando CD

Llagostera and San Fernando CD drew 1-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on May 21, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Nou Municipal de Palamós in Palamós.