Llagostera 1–2 Real Betis II: Result & Stats

Llagostera

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Real Betis II

3/5/2022

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 26Estadio Nou Municipal de Palamós

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Llagostera41%

×Draw29%

Real Betis II31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LlagosteraExpected goals in this matchReal Betis II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.00

Llagostera

1.20

Real Betis II

1.00

Llagostera creates 20% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 57 away

0.79

creates per match

0.89

1.11

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Llagostera

0.79

Real Betis II

0.89

allows per match

Llagostera

1.11

Real Betis II

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Llagostera+0.00on par

Real Betis II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Llagostera ↓

Real Betis II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Llagostera or draw

69%

Llagostera or Real Betis II

71%

Draw or Real Betis II

59%

Winning margin

Llagostera wins by 2+

17%

Real Betis II wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Llagostera 1+ goals

70%

Llagostera 2+ goals

34%

Llagostera 3+ goals

12%

Real Betis II 1+ goals

63%

Real Betis II 2+ goals

26%

Real Betis II 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Llagostera (draw refunded)

57%

Real Betis II (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Llagostera at home — creates 0.79, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

Real Betis II away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.60 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Llagostera attack 0.79 + Real Betis II defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.20

Real Betis II attack 0.89 + Llagostera defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Llagostera scores more

41%

level

29%

Real Betis II scores more

31%

Llagostera at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Llagostera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff