Llagostera 1–2 Atlético Baleares: Result & Stats

Llagostera

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Atlético Baleares

Xumetra 44'

A. Shashoua 78'

Carlos Delgado 57'

10/17/2021

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 8Estadio Municipal de Llagostera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Llagostera38%

×Draw30%

Atlético Baleares32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LlagosteraExpected goals in this matchAtlético Baleares

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

0.97

Llagostera

1.10

Atlético Baleares

0.97

Llagostera creates 13% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 57 away

0.79

creates per match

0.82

1.11

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Llagostera

0.79

Atlético Baleares

0.82

allows per match

Llagostera

1.11

Atlético Baleares

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Llagostera+0.00on par

Atlético Baleares+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Llagostera ↓

Atlético Baleares →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Llagostera or draw

68%

Llagostera or Atlético Baleares

70%

Draw or Atlético Baleares

62%

Winning margin

Llagostera wins by 2+

16%

Atlético Baleares wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Llagostera 1+ goals

67%

Llagostera 2+ goals

30%

Llagostera 3+ goals

10%

Atlético Baleares 1+ goals

62%

Atlético Baleares 2+ goals

25%

Atlético Baleares 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Llagostera (draw refunded)

55%

Atlético Baleares (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Llagostera at home — creates 0.79, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

Atlético Baleares away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.42 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Llagostera attack 0.79 + Atlético Baleares defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.10

Atlético Baleares attack 0.82 + Llagostera defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Llagostera scores more

38%

level

30%

Atlético Baleares scores more

32%

Llagostera at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Llagostera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

44'

Xumetra

57'

Carlos Delgado

61'

I. Olaortua

64'

Orfila← Iñaki Olaortua

69'

M. Manchon

70'

Álex Calatrava← M. Sidibé

73'

Gil Muntadas← Antonio Romero

73'

J. Forlín← Bruno Perone

75'

Isi Ros← José Fran

78'

A. Shashoua

81'

David Haro← Varo García Arana

81'

Pau Juvanteny← Marc Manchón

87'

Álex Robles← D. Petcoff

89'

A. Shashoua

Llagostera

Atlético

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Oriol Alsina

70'▲Álex Calatrava←▼M. Sidibé

73'▲Gil Muntadas←▼Antonio Romero

73'▲J. Forlín←▼Bruno Perone

81'▲David Haro←▼Varo García Arana

81'▲Pau Juvanteny←▼Marc Manchón

Llagostera substitutes

CalatravaMuntadasForlínHaroJuvantenyPuigMartínezMartín

Manager: Xavier Calm

64'▲Orfila←▼Iñaki Olaortua

75'▲Isi Ros←▼José Fran

87'▲Álex Robles←▼D. Petcoff

Atlético Baleares substitutes

OrfilaRosRoblesRigoFloritGinardBlázquez