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Ljungsbro vs Smedby — Division 2 - Södra Svealand 2019

Ljungsbro
Ljungsbro
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Smedby
Smedby
10/13/2024Division 2 - Södra SvealandDivision 2 - Södra Svealand · Södra Svealand - 25Maxivallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Ljungsbro38%
×Draw24%
Smedby39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ljungsbro
1.56
Smedby
1.58

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 73 away

creates per match

Ljungsbro
1.31
Smedby
1.70

allows per match

Ljungsbro
1.46
Smedby
1.82

finishing

Ljungsbro+0.00on par
Smedby+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ljungsbro ↓

Smedby →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Ljungsbro or draw
61%
Ljungsbro or Smedby
76%
Draw or Smedby
62%

Winning margin

Ljungsbro wins by 2+
18%
Smedby wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Ljungsbro 1+ goals
79%
Ljungsbro 2+ goals
46%
Ljungsbro 3+ goals
21%
Smedby 1+ goals
79%
Smedby 2+ goals
47%
Smedby 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Ljungsbro (draw refunded)
49%
Smedby (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ljungsbro at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.46 · 13 matches

Smedby away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.82 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ljungsbro attack 1.31 + Smedby defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.56

Smedby attack 1.70 + Ljungsbro defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Ljungsbro scores more
38%
level
24%
Smedby scores more
39%

Smedby at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Smedby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 2 - Södra Svealand: Ljungsbro 0–3 Smedby

Smedby beat Ljungsbro 3-0 in Division 2 - Södra Svealand on October 13, 2024.

The match was played at Maxivallen in Ljungsbro.