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Ljungsbro vs Nyköping — Division 2 - Södra Svealand 2019

Ljungsbro
Ljungsbro
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Nyköping
Nyköping
9/15/2024Division 2 - Södra SvealandDivision 2 - Södra Svealand · Södra Svealand - 21Maxivallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Ljungsbro32%
×Draw24%
Nyköping45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ljungsbro
1.37
Nyköping
1.67

Nyköping creates 22% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 72 away

creates per match

Ljungsbro
1.31
Nyköping
1.88

allows per match

Ljungsbro
1.46
Nyköping
1.43

finishing

Ljungsbro+0.00on par
Nyköping+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ljungsbro ↓

Nyköping →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Ljungsbro or draw
55%
Ljungsbro or Nyköping
76%
Draw or Nyköping
68%

Winning margin

Ljungsbro wins by 2+
14%
Nyköping wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Ljungsbro 1+ goals
75%
Ljungsbro 2+ goals
40%
Ljungsbro 3+ goals
16%
Nyköping 1+ goals
81%
Nyköping 2+ goals
50%
Nyköping 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Ljungsbro (draw refunded)
41%
Nyköping (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ljungsbro at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.46 · 13 matches

Nyköping away — creates 1.88, concedes 1.43 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ljungsbro attack 1.31 + Nyköping defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.37

Nyköping attack 1.88 + Ljungsbro defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Ljungsbro scores more
32%
level
24%
Nyköping scores more
45%

Nyköping at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Nyköping will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 2 - Södra Svealand: Ljungsbro 0–0 Nyköping

Ljungsbro and Nyköping drew 0-0 in Division 2 - Södra Svealand on September 15, 2024.

The match was played at Maxivallen in Ljungsbro.