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Ljungsbro vs Mjölby — Division 2 - Södra Svealand 2019

Ljungsbro
Ljungsbro
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Mjölby
Mjölby
8/24/2024Division 2 - Södra SvealandDivision 2 - Södra Svealand · Södra Svealand - 18Maxivallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Ljungsbro51%
×Draw22%
Mjölby27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ljungsbro
1.92
Mjölby
1.34

Ljungsbro creates 43% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 40 away

creates per match

Ljungsbro
1.31
Mjölby
1.23

allows per match

Ljungsbro
1.46
Mjölby
2.52

finishing

Ljungsbro+0.00on par
Mjölby+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ljungsbro ↓

Mjölby →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Ljungsbro or draw
73%
Ljungsbro or Mjölby
78%
Draw or Mjölby
49%

Winning margin

Ljungsbro wins by 2+
29%
Mjölby wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Ljungsbro 1+ goals
85%
Ljungsbro 2+ goals
57%
Ljungsbro 3+ goals
30%
Mjölby 1+ goals
74%
Mjölby 2+ goals
39%
Mjölby 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Ljungsbro (draw refunded)
65%
Mjölby (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ljungsbro at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.46 · 13 matches

Mjölby away — creates 1.23, concedes 2.52 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ljungsbro attack 1.31 + Mjölby defence 2.52 → ÷2 → 1.92

Mjölby attack 1.23 + Ljungsbro defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Ljungsbro scores more
51%
level
22%
Mjölby scores more
27%

Ljungsbro at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Ljungsbro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 2 - Södra Svealand: Ljungsbro 1–0 Mjölby

Ljungsbro beat Mjölby 1-0 in Division 2 - Södra Svealand on August 24, 2024.

The match was played at Maxivallen in Ljungsbro.