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Ljungsbro vs Haninge — Division 2 - Södra Svealand 2019

Ljungsbro
Ljungsbro
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Haninge
Haninge
P. Dibba 85'
W. Miguel 28'
6/19/2024Division 2 - Södra SvealandDivision 2 - Södra Svealand · Södra Svealand - 14Maxivallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Ljungsbro32%
×Draw23%
Haninge45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ljungsbro
1.48
Haninge
1.77

Haninge creates 20% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 47 away

creates per match

Ljungsbro
1.31
Haninge
2.09

allows per match

Ljungsbro
1.46
Haninge
1.66

finishing

Ljungsbro+0.00on par
Haninge+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ljungsbro ↓

Haninge →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Ljungsbro or draw
55%
Ljungsbro or Haninge
77%
Draw or Haninge
68%

Winning margin

Ljungsbro wins by 2+
15%
Haninge wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Ljungsbro 1+ goals
77%
Ljungsbro 2+ goals
43%
Ljungsbro 3+ goals
19%
Haninge 1+ goals
83%
Haninge 2+ goals
53%
Haninge 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Ljungsbro (draw refunded)
42%
Haninge (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ljungsbro at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.46 · 13 matches

Haninge away — creates 2.09, concedes 1.66 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ljungsbro attack 1.31 + Haninge defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.48

Haninge attack 2.09 + Ljungsbro defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Ljungsbro scores more
32%
level
23%
Haninge scores more
45%

Haninge at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Haninge will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'
W. Miguel
85'
P. Dibba

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 2 - Södra Svealand: Ljungsbro 0–2 Haninge

Haninge beat Ljungsbro 2-0 in Division 2 - Södra Svealand on June 19, 2024.

Goals: W. Miguel (28'), P. Dibba (85').

The match was played at Maxivallen in Ljungsbro.