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Ljubić Prnjavor vs Tekstilac Derventa — 1st League - RS 2019

Ljubić Prnjavor
Ljubić Prnjavor
FT
2 – 0
Tekstilac Derventa
Tekstilac Derventa
11/12/20221st League - RS1st League - RS · RS - 17Stadion Borik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Ljubić Prnjavor57%
×Draw24%
Tekstilac Derventa20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ljubić Prnjavor
1.74
Tekstilac Derventa
0.92

Ljubić Prnjavor creates 89% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 53 away

creates per match

Ljubić Prnjavor
1.84
Tekstilac Derventa
0.64

allows per match

Ljubić Prnjavor
1.20
Tekstilac Derventa
1.64

finishing

Ljubić Prnjavor+0.00on par
Tekstilac Derventa+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ljubić Prnjavor ↓

Tekstilac Derventa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Ljubić Prnjavor or draw
80%
Ljubić Prnjavor or Tekstilac Derventa
76%
Draw or Tekstilac Derventa
43%

Winning margin

Ljubić Prnjavor wins by 2+
32%
Tekstilac Derventa wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Ljubić Prnjavor 1+ goals
82%
Ljubić Prnjavor 2+ goals
52%
Ljubić Prnjavor 3+ goals
25%
Tekstilac Derventa 1+ goals
60%
Tekstilac Derventa 2+ goals
23%
Tekstilac Derventa 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Ljubić Prnjavor (draw refunded)
74%
Tekstilac Derventa (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ljubić Prnjavor at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.20 · 81 matches

Tekstilac Derventa away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.64 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ljubić Prnjavor attack 1.84 + Tekstilac Derventa defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.74

Tekstilac Derventa attack 0.64 + Ljubić Prnjavor defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Ljubić Prnjavor scores more
57%
level
24%
Tekstilac Derventa scores more
20%

Ljubić Prnjavor at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Ljubić Prnjavor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ljubić Prnjavor vs Tekstilac Derventa

Ljubić Prnjavor beat Tekstilac Derventa 2-0 in 1st League - RS on November 12, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Borik in Prnjavor.