Ljubić Prnjavor 1–2 Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad

Ljubić Prnjavor

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad

11/11/2023

1st League - RS · RS - 15Stadion Borik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Ljubić Prnjavor58%

×Draw22%

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ljubić PrnjavorExpected goals in this matchSloboda Mrkonjić Grad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.93

1.04

Ljubić Prnjavor

1.93

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad

1.04

Ljubić Prnjavor creates 86% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 51 away

1.84

creates per match

0.88

1.20

allows per match

2.02

creates per match

Ljubić Prnjavor

1.84

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad

0.88

allows per match

Ljubić Prnjavor

1.20

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad

2.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ljubić Prnjavor+0.00on par

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ljubić Prnjavor ↓

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Ljubić Prnjavor or draw

80%

Ljubić Prnjavor or Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad

78%

Draw or Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad

42%

Winning margin

Ljubić Prnjavor wins by 2+

34%

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Ljubić Prnjavor 1+ goals

85%

Ljubić Prnjavor 2+ goals

57%

Ljubić Prnjavor 3+ goals

30%

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad 1+ goals

65%

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad 2+ goals

28%

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Ljubić Prnjavor (draw refunded)

74%

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ljubić Prnjavor at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.20 · 81 matches

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.02 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ljubić Prnjavor attack 1.84 + Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 1.93

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad attack 0.88 + Ljubić Prnjavor defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Ljubić Prnjavor scores more

58%

level

22%

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad scores more

20%

Ljubić Prnjavor at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Ljubić Prnjavor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff