Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Ljubić Prnjavor vs Rudar Prijedor — 1st League - RS 2019

Ljubić Prnjavor
Ljubić Prnjavor
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Rudar Prijedor
Rudar Prijedor
8/12/20231st League - RS1st League - RS · RS - 1Stadion Borik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Ljubić Prnjavor42%
×Draw27%
Rudar Prijedor31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ljubić Prnjavor
1.33
Rudar Prijedor
1.11

Ljubić Prnjavor creates 20% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 73 away

creates per match

Ljubić Prnjavor
1.84
Rudar Prijedor
1.03

allows per match

Ljubić Prnjavor
1.20
Rudar Prijedor
0.81

finishing

Ljubić Prnjavor+0.00on par
Rudar Prijedor+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ljubić Prnjavor ↓

Rudar Prijedor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Ljubić Prnjavor or draw
69%
Ljubić Prnjavor or Rudar Prijedor
73%
Draw or Rudar Prijedor
58%

Winning margin

Ljubić Prnjavor wins by 2+
19%
Rudar Prijedor wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Ljubić Prnjavor 1+ goals
74%
Ljubić Prnjavor 2+ goals
38%
Ljubić Prnjavor 3+ goals
15%
Rudar Prijedor 1+ goals
67%
Rudar Prijedor 2+ goals
30%
Rudar Prijedor 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Ljubić Prnjavor (draw refunded)
57%
Rudar Prijedor (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ljubić Prnjavor at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.20 · 81 matches

Rudar Prijedor away — creates 1.03, concedes 0.81 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ljubić Prnjavor attack 1.84 + Rudar Prijedor defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.33

Rudar Prijedor attack 1.03 + Ljubić Prnjavor defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Ljubić Prnjavor scores more
42%
level
27%
Rudar Prijedor scores more
31%

Ljubić Prnjavor at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Ljubić Prnjavor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ljubić Prnjavor vs Rudar Prijedor

Rudar Prijedor beat Ljubić Prnjavor 2-0 in 1st League - RS on August 12, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Borik in Prnjavor.