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Ljubić Prnjavor vs Radnik Bijeljina — 1st League - RS 2019

Ljubić Prnjavor
Ljubić Prnjavor
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Radnik Bijeljina
Radnik Bijeljina
5/15/20241st League - RS1st League - RS · RS - 31Stadion Borik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Ljubić Prnjavor45%
×Draw26%
Radnik Bijeljina29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ljubić Prnjavor
1.48
Radnik Bijeljina
1.15

Ljubić Prnjavor creates 29% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 34 away

creates per match

Ljubić Prnjavor
1.84
Radnik Bijeljina
1.09

allows per match

Ljubić Prnjavor
1.20
Radnik Bijeljina
1.12

finishing

Ljubić Prnjavor+0.00on par
Radnik Bijeljina+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ljubić Prnjavor ↓

Radnik Bijeljina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Ljubić Prnjavor or draw
71%
Ljubić Prnjavor or Radnik Bijeljina
74%
Draw or Radnik Bijeljina
55%

Winning margin

Ljubić Prnjavor wins by 2+
22%
Radnik Bijeljina wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Ljubić Prnjavor 1+ goals
77%
Ljubić Prnjavor 2+ goals
43%
Ljubić Prnjavor 3+ goals
19%
Radnik Bijeljina 1+ goals
68%
Radnik Bijeljina 2+ goals
32%
Radnik Bijeljina 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Ljubić Prnjavor (draw refunded)
60%
Radnik Bijeljina (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ljubić Prnjavor at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.20 · 81 matches

Radnik Bijeljina away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.12 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ljubić Prnjavor attack 1.84 + Radnik Bijeljina defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.48

Radnik Bijeljina attack 1.09 + Ljubić Prnjavor defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Ljubić Prnjavor scores more
45%
level
26%
Radnik Bijeljina scores more
29%

Ljubić Prnjavor at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Ljubić Prnjavor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ljubić Prnjavor vs Radnik Bijeljina

Ljubić Prnjavor beat Radnik Bijeljina 2-1 in 1st League - RS on May 15, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Borik in Prnjavor.