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Ljubić Prnjavor vs Kozara Gradiška — 1st League - RS 2019

Ljubić Prnjavor
Ljubić Prnjavor
FT
1 – 0
Kozara Gradiška
Kozara Gradiška
3/23/20241st League - RS1st League - RS · RS - 21Stadion Borik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Ljubić Prnjavor55%
×Draw24%
Kozara Gradiška22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ljubić Prnjavor
1.76
Kozara Gradiška
1.02

Ljubić Prnjavor creates 73% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 104 away

creates per match

Ljubić Prnjavor
1.84
Kozara Gradiška
0.84

allows per match

Ljubić Prnjavor
1.20
Kozara Gradiška
1.68

finishing

Ljubić Prnjavor+0.00on par
Kozara Gradiška+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ljubić Prnjavor ↓

Kozara Gradiška →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Ljubić Prnjavor or draw
78%
Ljubić Prnjavor or Kozara Gradiška
76%
Draw or Kozara Gradiška
45%

Winning margin

Ljubić Prnjavor wins by 2+
30%
Kozara Gradiška wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Ljubić Prnjavor 1+ goals
83%
Ljubić Prnjavor 2+ goals
52%
Ljubić Prnjavor 3+ goals
26%
Kozara Gradiška 1+ goals
64%
Kozara Gradiška 2+ goals
27%
Kozara Gradiška 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Ljubić Prnjavor (draw refunded)
71%
Kozara Gradiška (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ljubić Prnjavor at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.20 · 81 matches

Kozara Gradiška away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.68 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ljubić Prnjavor attack 1.84 + Kozara Gradiška defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.76

Kozara Gradiška attack 0.84 + Ljubić Prnjavor defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Ljubić Prnjavor scores more
55%
level
24%
Kozara Gradiška scores more
22%

Ljubić Prnjavor at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Ljubić Prnjavor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ljubić Prnjavor vs Kozara Gradiška

Ljubić Prnjavor beat Kozara Gradiška 1-0 in 1st League - RS on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Borik in Prnjavor.