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LJS vs EPS II — Suomen Cup 2018

LJS
LJS
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
EPS II
EPS II
4/12/2022Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 3rd RoundEsport Arena TN

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

LJS3%
×Draw7%
EPS II89%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

LJS
0.72
EPS II
3.88

EPS II creates 439% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

creates per match

LJS
0.25
EPS II
5.00

allows per match

LJS
2.75
EPS II
1.20

finishing

LJS+0.00on par
EPS II+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LJS ↓

EPS II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–28%
0–311%
0–411%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–26%
1–38%
1–48%
2
2–00%
2–11%
2–22%
2–33%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (11%) · grid covers 72% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
64%36%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

LJS or draw
11%
LJS or EPS II
93%
Draw or EPS II
97%

Winning margin

LJS wins by 2+
1%
EPS II wins by 2+
75%

Team goals

LJS 1+ goals
51%
LJS 2+ goals
16%
LJS 3+ goals
4%
EPS II 1+ goals
98%
EPS II 2+ goals
89%
EPS II 3+ goals
72%

Draw no bet

LJS (draw refunded)
4%
EPS II (draw refunded)
96%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LJS at home — creates 0.25, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

EPS II away — creates 5.00, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LJS attack 0.25 + EPS II defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.72

EPS II attack 5.00 + LJS defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 3.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 89%?"

LJS scores more
3%
level
7%
EPS II scores more
89%

EPS II at 89% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 89% does not mean "EPS II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: LJS vs EPS II

EPS II beat LJS 3-0 in Suomen Cup on April 12, 2022.

The match was played at Esport Arena TN in Esbo.