Livyi Bereh 2–1 Karpaty Halych: Result & Stats

Livyi Bereh

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Karpaty Halych

Y. Morozenko 66'

A. Spivakov 31' (pen)

F. Hammond 61'

10/17/2021

Druha Liga - Group A · Group A - 14Stadion Livyy Bereh

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Livyi Bereh58%

×Draw22%

Karpaty Halych20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Livyi BerehExpected goals in this matchKarpaty Halych

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

1.02

Livyi Bereh

1.92

Karpaty Halych

1.02

Livyi Bereh creates 88% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 20 away

2.40

creates per match

1.65

0.40

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Livyi Bereh

2.40

Karpaty Halych

1.65

allows per match

Livyi Bereh

0.40

Karpaty Halych

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Livyi Bereh+0.00on par

Karpaty Halych+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Livyi Bereh ↓

Karpaty Halych →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Livyi Bereh or draw

80%

Livyi Bereh or Karpaty Halych

78%

Draw or Karpaty Halych

42%

Winning margin

Livyi Bereh wins by 2+

34%

Karpaty Halych wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Livyi Bereh 1+ goals

85%

Livyi Bereh 2+ goals

57%

Livyi Bereh 3+ goals

30%

Karpaty Halych 1+ goals

64%

Karpaty Halych 2+ goals

27%

Karpaty Halych 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Livyi Bereh (draw refunded)

75%

Karpaty Halych (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Livyi Bereh at home — creates 2.40, concedes 0.40 · 10 matches

Karpaty Halych away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.45 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Livyi Bereh attack 2.40 + Karpaty Halych defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.92

Karpaty Halych attack 1.65 + Livyi Bereh defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Livyi Bereh scores more

58%

level

22%

Karpaty Halych scores more

20%

Livyi Bereh at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Livyi Bereh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'

A. SpivakovPenalty

54'

F. Hammond← O. Bereza

59'

59'

61'

62'

62'

V. Berko← I. Petrenko

66'

Y. Morozenko

80'

R. Lisovyk← R. Danilovskyi

80'

V. Shevchuk← G. Martínez

88'

R. Mochulyak← P. Ksyonz

Livyi

Karpaty

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: A. Buznik

62'▲V. Koval←▼O. Guskov

62'▲V. Berko←▼I. Petrenko

88'▲R. Mochulyak←▼P. Ksyonz

Livyi Bereh substitutes

KovalBerkoMochulyak

Manager: Carlos Inarejos

54'▲F. Hammond←▼O. Bereza

59'▲N. Sushchak←▼A. Bey

59'▲I. Scotto←▼B. Mordas

80'▲R. Lisovyk←▼R. Danilovskyi

80'▲V. Shevchuk←▼G. Martínez

Karpaty Halych substitutes

HammondSushchakScottoLisovykShevchuk