Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Livyi Bereh U19 vs Obolon' Kyiv U19 — U19 League 2023

Livyi Bereh U19
Livyi Bereh U19
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Obolon' Kyiv U19
Obolon' Kyiv U19
M. Boychenyuk 25'
R. Heresh 3'
A. Chornyi 51'
11/29/2024U19 LeagueU19 League · Round 15Stadion Livyi Bereh

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Livyi Bereh U1937%
×Draw26%
Obolon' Kyiv U1938%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Livyi Bereh U19
1.36
Obolon' Kyiv U19
1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 45 away

creates per match

Livyi Bereh U19
1.20
Obolon' Kyiv U19
0.84

allows per match

Livyi Bereh U19
1.93
Obolon' Kyiv U19
1.53

finishing

Livyi Bereh U19+0.00on par
Obolon' Kyiv U19+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Livyi Bereh U19 ↓

Obolon' Kyiv U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Livyi Bereh U19 or draw
62%
Livyi Bereh U19 or Obolon' Kyiv U19
74%
Draw or Obolon' Kyiv U19
63%

Winning margin

Livyi Bereh U19 wins by 2+
17%
Obolon' Kyiv U19 wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Livyi Bereh U19 1+ goals
74%
Livyi Bereh U19 2+ goals
39%
Livyi Bereh U19 3+ goals
16%
Obolon' Kyiv U19 1+ goals
75%
Obolon' Kyiv U19 2+ goals
40%
Obolon' Kyiv U19 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Livyi Bereh U19 (draw refunded)
49%
Obolon' Kyiv U19 (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Livyi Bereh U19 at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.93 · 15 matches

Obolon' Kyiv U19 away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.53 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Livyi Bereh U19 attack 1.20 + Obolon' Kyiv U19 defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.36

Obolon' Kyiv U19 attack 0.84 + Livyi Bereh U19 defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Livyi Bereh U19 scores more
37%
level
26%
Obolon' Kyiv U19 scores more
38%

Obolon' Kyiv U19 at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Obolon' Kyiv U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'
R. Heresh
25'
M. Boychenyuk
51'
A. Chornyi
85'
K. Korkh
85'
K. Korkh

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

U19 League: Livyi Bereh U19 2–1 Obolon' Kyiv U19

Livyi Bereh U19 beat Obolon' Kyiv U19 2-1 in U19 League on November 29, 2024.

Goals: R. Heresh (3'), M. Boychenyuk (25'), A. Chornyi (51').

The match was played at Stadion Livyi Bereh in Kyiv.