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Livyi Bereh U19 vs LNZ Cherkasy U19 — U19 League 2023

Livyi Bereh U19
Livyi Bereh U19
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
LNZ Cherkasy U19
LNZ Cherkasy U19
R. Heresh 66', 52'
M. Boychenyuk 46'
12/6/2024U19 LeagueU19 League · Round 16Stadion Livyi Bereh

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Livyi Bereh U1949%
×Draw22%
LNZ Cherkasy U1929%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Livyi Bereh U19
1.96
LNZ Cherkasy U19
1.46

Livyi Bereh U19 creates 34% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 45 away

creates per match

Livyi Bereh U19
1.20
LNZ Cherkasy U19
0.98

allows per match

Livyi Bereh U19
1.93
LNZ Cherkasy U19
2.71

finishing

Livyi Bereh U19+0.00on par
LNZ Cherkasy U19+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Livyi Bereh U19 ↓

LNZ Cherkasy U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Livyi Bereh U19 or draw
71%
Livyi Bereh U19 or LNZ Cherkasy U19
78%
Draw or LNZ Cherkasy U19
51%

Winning margin

Livyi Bereh U19 wins by 2+
28%
LNZ Cherkasy U19 wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Livyi Bereh U19 1+ goals
86%
Livyi Bereh U19 2+ goals
58%
Livyi Bereh U19 3+ goals
31%
LNZ Cherkasy U19 1+ goals
77%
LNZ Cherkasy U19 2+ goals
43%
LNZ Cherkasy U19 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Livyi Bereh U19 (draw refunded)
63%
LNZ Cherkasy U19 (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Livyi Bereh U19 at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.93 · 15 matches

LNZ Cherkasy U19 away — creates 0.98, concedes 2.71 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Livyi Bereh U19 attack 1.20 + LNZ Cherkasy U19 defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 1.96

LNZ Cherkasy U19 attack 0.98 + Livyi Bereh U19 defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Livyi Bereh U19 scores more
49%
level
22%
LNZ Cherkasy U19 scores more
29%

Livyi Bereh U19 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Livyi Bereh U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'
M. Boychenyuk
52'
R. Heresh
66'
R. Heresh

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

U19 League: Livyi Bereh U19 3–0 LNZ Cherkasy U19

Livyi Bereh U19 beat LNZ Cherkasy U19 3-0 in U19 League on December 6, 2024.

Goals: M. Boychenyuk (46'), R. Heresh (52', 66').

The match was played at Stadion Livyi Bereh in Kyiv.