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Livyi Bereh U19 vs Kryvbas 2020 U19 — U19 League 2023

Livyi Bereh U19
Livyi Bereh U19
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Kryvbas 2020 U19
Kryvbas 2020 U19
B. Pasichnyi 60'
9/14/2024U19 LeagueU19 League · Round 6Stadion Livyi Bereh

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Livyi Bereh U1937%
×Draw23%
Kryvbas 2020 U1939%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Livyi Bereh U19
1.60
Kryvbas 2020 U19
1.65

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 45 away

creates per match

Livyi Bereh U19
1.20
Kryvbas 2020 U19
1.38

allows per match

Livyi Bereh U19
1.93
Kryvbas 2020 U19
2.00

finishing

Livyi Bereh U19+0.00on par
Kryvbas 2020 U19+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Livyi Bereh U19 ↓

Kryvbas 2020 U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Livyi Bereh U19 or draw
61%
Livyi Bereh U19 or Kryvbas 2020 U19
77%
Draw or Kryvbas 2020 U19
63%

Winning margin

Livyi Bereh U19 wins by 2+
18%
Kryvbas 2020 U19 wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Livyi Bereh U19 1+ goals
80%
Livyi Bereh U19 2+ goals
47%
Livyi Bereh U19 3+ goals
22%
Kryvbas 2020 U19 1+ goals
81%
Kryvbas 2020 U19 2+ goals
49%
Kryvbas 2020 U19 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Livyi Bereh U19 (draw refunded)
49%
Kryvbas 2020 U19 (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Livyi Bereh U19 at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.93 · 15 matches

Kryvbas 2020 U19 away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.00 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Livyi Bereh U19 attack 1.20 + Kryvbas 2020 U19 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.60

Kryvbas 2020 U19 attack 1.38 + Livyi Bereh U19 defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Livyi Bereh U19 scores more
37%
level
23%
Kryvbas 2020 U19 scores more
39%

Kryvbas 2020 U19 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Kryvbas 2020 U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

60'
B. Pasichnyi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Livyi Bereh U19 vs Kryvbas 2020 U19

Livyi Bereh U19 and Kryvbas 2020 U19 drew 1-1 in U19 League on September 14, 2024.

Goals: B. Pasichnyi (60').

The match was played at Stadion Livyi Bereh in Kyiv.