Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Livyi Bereh U19 vs Karpaty Lviv U19 — U19 League 2023

Livyi Bereh U19
Livyi Bereh U19
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Karpaty Lviv U19
Karpaty Lviv U19
F. Rodriguez 90+2'
L. Yano 70', 13'
O. Abramchuk 41'
5/1/2025U19 LeagueU19 League · Round 27Stadion Livyi Bereh

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Livyi Bereh U1928%
×Draw22%
Karpaty Lviv U1949%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Livyi Bereh U19
1.39
Karpaty Lviv U19
1.90

Karpaty Lviv U19 creates 37% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 30 away

creates per match

Livyi Bereh U19
1.20
Karpaty Lviv U19
1.87

allows per match

Livyi Bereh U19
1.93
Karpaty Lviv U19
1.57

finishing

Livyi Bereh U19+0.00on par
Karpaty Lviv U19+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Livyi Bereh U19 ↓

Karpaty Lviv U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Livyi Bereh U19 or draw
51%
Livyi Bereh U19 or Karpaty Lviv U19
78%
Draw or Karpaty Lviv U19
72%

Winning margin

Livyi Bereh U19 wins by 2+
12%
Karpaty Lviv U19 wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Livyi Bereh U19 1+ goals
75%
Livyi Bereh U19 2+ goals
40%
Livyi Bereh U19 3+ goals
16%
Karpaty Lviv U19 1+ goals
85%
Karpaty Lviv U19 2+ goals
56%
Karpaty Lviv U19 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Livyi Bereh U19 (draw refunded)
36%
Karpaty Lviv U19 (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Livyi Bereh U19 at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.93 · 15 matches

Karpaty Lviv U19 away — creates 1.87, concedes 1.57 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Livyi Bereh U19 attack 1.20 + Karpaty Lviv U19 defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.39

Karpaty Lviv U19 attack 1.87 + Livyi Bereh U19 defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Livyi Bereh U19 scores more
28%
level
22%
Karpaty Lviv U19 scores more
49%

Karpaty Lviv U19 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Karpaty Lviv U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'
L. Yano
41'
O. Abramchuk
70'
L. Yano
90+2'
F. Rodriguez

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

U19 League: Livyi Bereh U19 0–4 Karpaty Lviv U19

Karpaty Lviv U19 beat Livyi Bereh U19 4-0 in U19 League on May 1, 2025.

Goals: L. Yano (13', 70'), O. Abramchuk (41'), F. Rodriguez (90+2').

The match was played at Stadion Livyi Bereh in Kyiv.