Livorno 1–2 Trapani: Result & Stats | Serie B

Livorno

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Trapani

11/23/2019

Serie B · Round 13Stadio Armando Picchi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Livorno42%

×Draw25%

Trapani34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LivornoExpected goals in this matchTrapani

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.37

Livorno

1.55

Trapani

1.37

Livorno creates 13% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 19 away

1.00

creates per match

1.11

1.62

allows per match

2.11

creates per match

Livorno

1.00

Trapani

1.11

allows per match

Livorno

1.62

Trapani

2.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Livorno+0.00on par

Trapani+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Livorno ↓

Trapani →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Livorno or draw

66%

Livorno or Trapani

75%

Draw or Trapani

58%

Winning margin

Livorno wins by 2+

21%

Trapani wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Livorno 1+ goals

79%

Livorno 2+ goals

46%

Livorno 3+ goals

20%

Trapani 1+ goals

75%

Trapani 2+ goals

40%

Trapani 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Livorno (draw refunded)

55%

Trapani (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Livorno at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.62 · 37 matches

Trapani away — creates 1.11, concedes 2.11 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Livorno attack 1.00 + Trapani defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.55

Trapani attack 1.11 + Livorno defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Livorno scores more

42%

level

25%

Trapani scores more

34%

Livorno at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Livorno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff