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Livorno vs Nuova Cosenza — Serie B 2018

Livorno
Livorno
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
Nuova Cosenza
Nuova Cosenza
2/15/2020Serie BSerie B · Round 24Stadio Armando Picchi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Livorno37%
×Draw27%
Nuova Cosenza36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Livorno
1.27
Nuova Cosenza
1.26

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 37 home / 134 away

creates per match

Livorno
1.00
Nuova Cosenza
0.90

allows per match

Livorno
1.62
Nuova Cosenza
1.54

finishing

Livorno+0.00on par
Nuova Cosenza+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Livorno ↓

Nuova Cosenza →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Livorno or draw
64%
Livorno or Nuova Cosenza
73%
Draw or Nuova Cosenza
63%

Winning margin

Livorno wins by 2+
16%
Nuova Cosenza wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Livorno 1+ goals
72%
Livorno 2+ goals
36%
Livorno 3+ goals
14%
Nuova Cosenza 1+ goals
72%
Nuova Cosenza 2+ goals
36%
Nuova Cosenza 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Livorno (draw refunded)
50%
Nuova Cosenza (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Livorno at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.62 · 37 matches

Nuova Cosenza away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.54 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Livorno attack 1.00 + Nuova Cosenza defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.27

Nuova Cosenza attack 0.90 + Livorno defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Livorno scores more
37%
level
27%
Nuova Cosenza scores more
36%

Livorno at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Livorno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Livorno vs Nuova Cosenza

Nuova Cosenza beat Livorno 3-0 in Serie B on February 15, 2020.

The match was played at Stadio Armando Picchi in Livorno.