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Livorno vs Hellas Verona — Serie B 2018

Livorno
Livorno
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Hellas Verona
Hellas Verona
12/22/2018Serie BSerie B · Round 17Armando Picchi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Livorno33%
×Draw27%
Hellas Verona41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Livorno
1.17
Hellas Verona
1.34

Hellas Verona creates 15% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 18 away

creates per match

Livorno
1.00
Hellas Verona
1.06

allows per match

Livorno
1.62
Hellas Verona
1.33

finishing

Livorno+0.00on par
Hellas Verona+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Livorno ↓

Hellas Verona →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Livorno or draw
59%
Livorno or Hellas Verona
73%
Draw or Hellas Verona
67%

Winning margin

Livorno wins by 2+
13%
Hellas Verona wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Livorno 1+ goals
69%
Livorno 2+ goals
33%
Livorno 3+ goals
11%
Hellas Verona 1+ goals
74%
Hellas Verona 2+ goals
39%
Hellas Verona 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Livorno (draw refunded)
44%
Hellas Verona (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Livorno at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.62 · 37 matches

Hellas Verona away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.33 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Livorno attack 1.00 + Hellas Verona defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

Hellas Verona attack 1.06 + Livorno defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Livorno scores more
33%
level
27%
Hellas Verona scores more
41%

Hellas Verona at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Hellas Verona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Livorno vs Hellas Verona

Livorno and Hellas Verona drew 0-0 in Serie B on December 22, 2018.

The match was played at Armando Picchi in Livorno.