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Livorno vs Cremonese — Serie B 2018

Livorno
Livorno
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Cremonese
Cremonese
4/2/2019Serie BSerie B · Round 31Armando Picchi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Livorno29%
×Draw26%
Cremonese45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Livorno
1.09
Cremonese
1.43

Cremonese creates 31% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 117 away

creates per match

Livorno
1.00
Cremonese
1.23

allows per match

Livorno
1.62
Cremonese
1.19

finishing

Livorno+0.00on par
Cremonese+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Livorno ↓

Cremonese →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Livorno or draw
55%
Livorno or Cremonese
74%
Draw or Cremonese
71%

Winning margin

Livorno wins by 2+
11%
Cremonese wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Livorno 1+ goals
66%
Livorno 2+ goals
30%
Livorno 3+ goals
10%
Cremonese 1+ goals
76%
Cremonese 2+ goals
42%
Cremonese 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Livorno (draw refunded)
39%
Cremonese (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Livorno at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.62 · 37 matches

Cremonese away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.19 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Livorno attack 1.00 + Cremonese defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.09

Cremonese attack 1.23 + Livorno defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Livorno scores more
29%
level
26%
Cremonese scores more
45%

Cremonese at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Cremonese will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie B: Livorno 1–3 Cremonese

Cremonese beat Livorno 3-1 in Serie B on April 2, 2019.

The match was played at Armando Picchi in Livorno.