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Livingston vs Raith Rovers — League Cup 2018

Livingston
Livingston
Pens
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Raith Rovers
Raith Rovers
7/21/2021League CupLeague Cup · Group Stage - 7Tony Macaroni Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Livingston60%
×Draw22%
Raith Rovers18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Livingston
1.92
Raith Rovers
0.94

Livingston creates 104% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 15 away

creates per match

Livingston
1.83
Raith Rovers
1.27

allows per match

Livingston
0.61
Raith Rovers
2.00

finishing

Livingston+0.00on par
Raith Rovers+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Livingston ↓

Raith Rovers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Livingston or draw
82%
Livingston or Raith Rovers
78%
Draw or Raith Rovers
40%

Winning margin

Livingston wins by 2+
36%
Raith Rovers wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Livingston 1+ goals
85%
Livingston 2+ goals
57%
Livingston 3+ goals
30%
Raith Rovers 1+ goals
61%
Raith Rovers 2+ goals
24%
Raith Rovers 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Livingston (draw refunded)
77%
Raith Rovers (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Livingston at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.61 · 23 matches

Raith Rovers away — creates 1.27, concedes 2.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Livingston attack 1.83 + Raith Rovers defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.92

Raith Rovers attack 1.27 + Livingston defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Livingston scores more
60%
level
22%
Raith Rovers scores more
18%

Livingston at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Livingston will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Livingston vs Raith Rovers

Livingston and Raith Rovers drew 0-0 in League Cup on July 21, 2021.

The match was played at Tony Macaroni Arena in Livingston.