Livingston 2–1 Hamilton Academical: Result & Stats

Livingston

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Hamilton Academical

3/13/2021

Premiership · 1st Phase - 25Tony Macaroni Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Livingston50%

×Draw25%

Hamilton Academical24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LivingstonExpected goals in this matchHamilton Academical

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.02

Livingston

1.58

Hamilton Academical

1.02

Livingston creates 55% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 52 away

1.18

creates per match

0.83

1.22

allows per match

1.98

creates per match

Livingston

1.18

Hamilton Academical

0.83

allows per match

Livingston

1.22

Hamilton Academical

1.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Livingston+0.00on par

Hamilton Academical+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Livingston ↓

Hamilton Academical →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Livingston or draw

76%

Livingston or Hamilton Academical

75%

Draw or Hamilton Academical

50%

Winning margin

Livingston wins by 2+

26%

Hamilton Academical wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Livingston 1+ goals

79%

Livingston 2+ goals

47%

Livingston 3+ goals

21%

Hamilton Academical 1+ goals

64%

Hamilton Academical 2+ goals

27%

Hamilton Academical 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Livingston (draw refunded)

67%

Hamilton Academical (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Livingston at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.22 · 128 matches

Hamilton Academical away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.98 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Livingston attack 1.18 + Hamilton Academical defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.58

Hamilton Academical attack 0.83 + Livingston defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Livingston scores more

50%

level

25%

Hamilton Academical scores more

24%

Livingston at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Livingston will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff