Livingston 3–0 East Stirlingshire: Result & Stats

Livingston

FT

3 – 0

East Stirlingshire

7/3/2021

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Tony Macaroni Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Livingston80%

×Draw14%

East Stirlingshire6%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LivingstonExpected goals in this matchEast Stirlingshire

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.42

0.50

Livingston

2.42

East Stirlingshire

0.50

Livingston creates 384% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

2.50

creates per match

0.67

0.33

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

Livingston

2.50

East Stirlingshire

0.67

allows per match

Livingston

0.33

East Stirlingshire

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Livingston+0.00on par

East Stirlingshire+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Livingston ↓

East Stirlingshire →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–17%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–016%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–013%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–08%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (16%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Livingston or draw

94%

Livingston or East Stirlingshire

86%

Draw or East Stirlingshire

20%

Winning margin

Livingston wins by 2+

57%

East Stirlingshire wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Livingston 1+ goals

91%

Livingston 2+ goals

69%

Livingston 3+ goals

43%

East Stirlingshire 1+ goals

39%

East Stirlingshire 2+ goals

9%

East Stirlingshire 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Livingston (draw refunded)

93%

East Stirlingshire (draw refunded)

7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Livingston at home — creates 2.50, concedes 0.33 · 6 matches

East Stirlingshire away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Livingston attack 2.50 + East Stirlingshire defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.42

East Stirlingshire attack 0.67 + Livingston defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Livingston scores more

80%

level

14%

East Stirlingshire scores more

6%

Livingston at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Livingston will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff