Livingston 3–1 East Fife: Result & Stats

Livingston

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

East Fife

L. Buchanan 66' (pen), 45+1'

M. Miller 49'

K. Smith 53'

11/5/2016

League #183 · Round 12Tony Macaroni Arena (Livingston)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Livingston62%

×Draw22%

East Fife15%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LivingstonExpected goals in this matchEast Fife

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

0.77

Livingston

1.81

East Fife

0.77

Livingston creates 135% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

1.33

creates per match

0.86

0.67

allows per match

2.29

creates per match

Livingston

1.33

East Fife

0.86

allows per match

Livingston

0.67

East Fife

2.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Livingston+0.00on par

East Fife+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Livingston ↓

East Fife →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Livingston or draw

85%

Livingston or East Fife

78%

Draw or East Fife

38%

Winning margin

Livingston wins by 2+

36%

East Fife wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Livingston 1+ goals

84%

Livingston 2+ goals

54%

Livingston 3+ goals

27%

East Fife 1+ goals

54%

East Fife 2+ goals

18%

East Fife 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Livingston (draw refunded)

80%

East Fife (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Livingston at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

East Fife away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Livingston attack 1.33 + East Fife defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.81

East Fife attack 0.86 + Livingston defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Livingston scores more

62%

level

22%

East Fife scores more

15%

Livingston at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Livingston will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45+1'

49'

53'

62'

65'

R. Goodfellow← K. OHara

66'

L. BuchananPenalty

76'

P. McManus← K. Smith

81'

R. Currie← R. De Vita

83'

J. Insall← T. Wallace

84'

D. Carrick← L. Buchanan

Livingston

East

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

Buchanan

Pittman

Mullen

Manager: D. Hopkin

62'▲S. Byrne←▼N. Cadden

81'▲R. Currie←▼R. De Vita

84'▲D. Carrick←▼L. Buchanan

Livingston substitutes

ByrneCurrieCarrickMaleyMullinSinclairWatt

Manager: G. Naysmith

65'▲R. Goodfellow←▼K. OHara

76'▲P. McManus←▼K. Smith

83'▲J. Insall←▼T. Wallace

East Fife substitutes

GoodfellowMcManusInsallAustinLamont