Livingston 3–0 Cove Rangers: Result & Stats

Livingston

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Cove Rangers

2/8/2025

FA Cup · 5th RoundHome of the Set Fare Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Livingston52%

×Draw25%

Cove Rangers23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LivingstonExpected goals in this matchCove Rangers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.00

Livingston

1.64

Cove Rangers

1.00

Livingston creates 64% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

1.57

creates per match

1.14

0.86

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Livingston

1.57

Cove Rangers

1.14

allows per match

Livingston

0.86

Cove Rangers

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Livingston+0.00on par

Cove Rangers+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Livingston ↓

Cove Rangers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Livingston or draw

77%

Livingston or Cove Rangers

75%

Draw or Cove Rangers

48%

Winning margin

Livingston wins by 2+

28%

Cove Rangers wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Livingston 1+ goals

81%

Livingston 2+ goals

49%

Livingston 3+ goals

23%

Cove Rangers 1+ goals

63%

Cove Rangers 2+ goals

26%

Cove Rangers 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Livingston (draw refunded)

69%

Cove Rangers (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Livingston at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

Cove Rangers away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Livingston attack 1.57 + Cove Rangers defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.64

Cove Rangers attack 1.14 + Livingston defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Livingston scores more

52%

level

25%

Cove Rangers scores more

23%

Livingston at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Livingston will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff