Livingston 2–0 Brora Rangers: Result & Stats

Livingston

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Brora Rangers

Z. Rudden 84'

D. Wilson 31'

7/19/2025

League Cup · Group Stage - 3The Home of the Set Fare Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Livingston83%

×Draw12%

Brora Rangers5%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LivingstonExpected goals in this matchBrora Rangers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.67

0.50

Livingston

2.67

Brora Rangers

0.50

Livingston creates 434% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

2.67

creates per match

0.33

0.67

allows per match

2.67

creates per match

Livingston

2.67

Brora Rangers

0.33

allows per match

Livingston

0.67

Brora Rangers

2.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Livingston+0.00on par

Brora Rangers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Livingston ↓

Brora Rangers →

0–04%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–011%

1–16%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2–015%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3–014%

3–17%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–09%

4–15%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (15%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Livingston or draw

95%

Livingston or Brora Rangers

88%

Draw or Brora Rangers

17%

Winning margin

Livingston wins by 2+

62%

Brora Rangers wins by 2+

Team goals

Livingston 1+ goals

93%

Livingston 2+ goals

74%

Livingston 3+ goals

49%

Brora Rangers 1+ goals

39%

Brora Rangers 2+ goals

Brora Rangers 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Livingston (draw refunded)

94%

Brora Rangers (draw refunded)

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Livingston at home — creates 2.67, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Brora Rangers away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Livingston attack 2.67 + Brora Rangers defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.67

Brora Rangers attack 0.33 + Livingston defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 83%?"

Livingston scores more

83%

level

12%

Brora Rangers scores more

Livingston at 83% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 83% does not mean "Livingston will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'

D. Wilson↳ A. Shinnie

39'

G. Pullen← M. Nicolson

42'

46'

58'

61'

61'

74'

S. Sutherland← J. Wallace

77'

D. Finlayson

77'

Z. Rudden← A. Winter

77'

S. Pittman← G. Carey

84'

Z. Rudden↳ S. May

86'

C. MacKenzie

Livingston

Brora

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: David Paul Martindale

46'▲J. Wanner←▼L. Smith

61'▲S. May←▼R. Muirhead

61'▲M. Sylla←▼S. Culbert

77'▲Z. Rudden←▼A. Winter

77'▲S. Pittman←▼G. Carey

Livingston substitutes

4Blaney7Rudden8Pittman14Hamilton17May23Kabongolo24Sylla37Wanner39Yengi

Manager: Steven Callum Mackay

39'▲G. Pullen←▼M. Nicolson

58'▲M. Ewan←▼J. Macrae

74'▲S. Sutherland←▼J. Wallace

Brora Rangers substitutes

3Hardie6Cooper10Sutherland15Pullen17Ewan20Rae