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Livingston vs Berwick Rangers — League Cup 2018

Livingston
Livingston
FT
5 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Berwick Rangers
Berwick Rangers
7/27/2019League CupLeague Cup · Group Stage - 8Tony Macaroni Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Livingston90%
×Draw8%
Berwick Rangers2%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Livingston
3.04
Berwick Rangers
0.30

Livingston creates 913% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 4 away

creates per match

Livingston
1.83
Berwick Rangers
0.00

allows per match

Livingston
0.61
Berwick Rangers
4.25

finishing

Livingston+0.00on par
Berwick Rangers+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%No
  • No75
  • Yes25

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Livingston ↓

Berwick Rangers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–13%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–017%
2–15%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–017%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–013%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (17%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Livingston or draw
98%
Livingston or Berwick Rangers
92%
Draw or Berwick Rangers
10%

Winning margin

Livingston wins by 2+
73%
Berwick Rangers wins by 2+
0%

Team goals

Livingston 1+ goals
95%
Livingston 2+ goals
80%
Livingston 3+ goals
57%
Berwick Rangers 1+ goals
26%
Berwick Rangers 2+ goals
4%
Berwick Rangers 3+ goals
0%

Draw no bet

Livingston (draw refunded)
98%
Berwick Rangers (draw refunded)
2%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Livingston at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.61 · 23 matches

Berwick Rangers away — creates 0.00, concedes 4.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Livingston attack 1.83 + Berwick Rangers defence 4.25 → ÷2 → 3.04

Berwick Rangers attack 0.00 + Livingston defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 90%?"

Livingston scores more
90%
level
8%
Berwick Rangers scores more
2%

Livingston at 90% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 90% does not mean "Livingston will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Livingston vs Berwick Rangers

Livingston beat Berwick Rangers 5-0 in League Cup on July 27, 2019.

The match was played at Tony Macaroni Arena in Livingston.