Liverpool W 0–1 West Ham W: Result & Stats | FA WSL

Liverpool W

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

West Ham W

C. Kapocs 6' (OG)

4/26/2026

FA WSL · Round 20St Helens Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Liverpool W49%

×Draw24%

West Ham W28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Liverpool WExpected goals in this matchWest Ham W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.23

Liverpool W

1.71

West Ham W

1.23

Liverpool W creates 39% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 81 away

1.32

creates per match

1.09

1.38

allows per match

2.11

creates per match

Liverpool W

1.32

West Ham W

1.09

allows per match

Liverpool W

1.38

West Ham W

2.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Liverpool W+0.00on par

West Ham W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Liverpool W ↓

West Ham W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Liverpool W or draw

72%

Liverpool W or West Ham W

76%

Draw or West Ham W

51%

Winning margin

Liverpool W wins by 2+

26%

West Ham W wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Liverpool W 1+ goals

82%

Liverpool W 2+ goals

51%

Liverpool W 3+ goals

24%

West Ham W 1+ goals

71%

West Ham W 2+ goals

35%

West Ham W 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Liverpool W (draw refunded)

64%

West Ham W (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Liverpool W at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.38 · 60 matches

West Ham W away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.11 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Liverpool W attack 1.32 + West Ham W defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.71

West Ham W attack 1.09 + Liverpool W defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Liverpool W scores more

49%

level

24%

West Ham W scores more

28%

Liverpool W at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Liverpool W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28

E. Cascarino

West Ham W · D

7.6

Match Events

6'

C. KapocsOwn goal

25'

Alejandra Bernabé

67'

A. Josendal← A. Bergstrom

70'

S. Piubel← R. Ueki

72'

A. Csillag← B. Olsson

80'

D. O'Sullivan← K. MacLean

80'

M. Enderby← C. Holland

81'

L. Wandeler← S. Martinez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LiverpoolWest

Overview

61%Possession39%

11Total Shots7

10Corners4

13Fouls4

Shots

11Total Shots7

3On Target2

5Off Target3

3Blocked2

6Inside Box5

5Outside Box2

Passing

61%Possession39%

515Total Passes344

433Accurate Passes262

84%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls4

1Yellow Cards0

1Offsides3