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Liverpool W vs Aston Villa W — FA WSL 2018

Liverpool W
Liverpool W
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Aston Villa W
Aston Villa W
3/30/2025FA WSLFA WSL · Round 18St Helens Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Liverpool W43%
×Draw25%
Aston Villa W32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Liverpool W
1.58
Aston Villa W
1.34

Liverpool W creates 18% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 66 away

creates per match

Liverpool W
1.33
Aston Villa W
1.27

allows per match

Liverpool W
1.41
Aston Villa W
1.82

finishing

Liverpool W+0.00on par
Aston Villa W+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Liverpool W ↓

Aston Villa W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Liverpool W or draw
68%
Liverpool W or Aston Villa W
75%
Draw or Aston Villa W
57%

Winning margin

Liverpool W wins by 2+
22%
Aston Villa W wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Liverpool W 1+ goals
79%
Liverpool W 2+ goals
47%
Liverpool W 3+ goals
21%
Aston Villa W 1+ goals
74%
Aston Villa W 2+ goals
39%
Aston Villa W 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Liverpool W (draw refunded)
57%
Aston Villa W (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Liverpool W at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.41 · 61 matches

Aston Villa W away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.82 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Liverpool W attack 1.33 + Aston Villa W defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.58

Aston Villa W attack 1.27 + Liverpool W defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Liverpool W scores more
43%
level
25%
Aston Villa W scores more
32%

Liverpool W at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Liverpool W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Liverpool W vs Aston Villa W

Aston Villa W beat Liverpool W 2-1 in FA WSL on March 30, 2025.

The match was played at St Helens Stadium in St Helens, Merseyside.