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Liverpool vs West Brom — Premier League 2026

Liverpool
Liverpool
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
West Brom
West Brom
12/27/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 15Anfield

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Liverpool61%
×Draw22%
West Brom16%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Liverpool
1.85
West Brom
0.83

Liverpool creates 123% more chances

Season form · 197 home / 93 away

creates per match

Liverpool
2.20
West Brom
0.83

allows per match

Liverpool
0.84
West Brom
1.51

finishing

Liverpool+0.00on par
West Brom+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Liverpool ↓

West Brom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Liverpool or draw
84%
Liverpool or West Brom
78%
Draw or West Brom
39%

Winning margin

Liverpool wins by 2+
36%
West Brom wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Liverpool 1+ goals
84%
Liverpool 2+ goals
55%
Liverpool 3+ goals
28%
West Brom 1+ goals
56%
West Brom 2+ goals
20%
West Brom 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Liverpool (draw refunded)
79%
West Brom (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Liverpool at home — creates 2.20, concedes 0.84 · 197 matches

West Brom away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.51 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Liverpool attack 2.20 + West Brom defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.85

West Brom attack 0.83 + Liverpool defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Liverpool scores more
61%
level
22%
West Brom scores more
16%

Liverpool at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Liverpool will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Liverpool 1–1 West Brom

Liverpool and West Brom drew 1-1 in Premier League on December 27, 2020.

The match was played at Anfield in Liverpool.