Liverpool 1–1 Newcastle: Result & Stats

Liverpool

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Newcastle

Mohamed Salah 3'

J. Willock 90+5'

4/24/2021

Premier League · Round 33Anfield

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 28+ matches

Liverpool46%

×Draw25%

Newcastle29%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LiverpoolExpected goals in this matchNewcastle

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.18

Liverpool

1.56

Newcastle

1.18

Liverpool creates 32% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 28 away

1.93

creates per match

1.24

1.12

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Liverpool

1.93

Newcastle

1.24

allows per match

Liverpool

1.12

Newcastle

1.20

+0.13scores more than expected

finishing

-0.35scores less than expected

finishing

Liverpool+0.13scores more

Newcastle-0.35scores less

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Liverpool ↓

Newcastle →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Liverpool or draw

71%

Liverpool or Newcastle

75%

Draw or Newcastle

54%

Winning margin

Liverpool wins by 2+

23%

Newcastle wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Liverpool 1+ goals

79%

Liverpool 2+ goals

46%

Liverpool 3+ goals

21%

Newcastle 1+ goals

69%

Newcastle 2+ goals

33%

Newcastle 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Liverpool (draw refunded)

62%

Newcastle (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Liverpool at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.12 · 33 matches

Newcastle away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.20 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Liverpool attack 1.93 + Newcastle defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.56

Newcastle attack 1.24 + Liverpool defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Liverpool scores more

46%

level

25%

Newcastle scores more

29%

Liverpool at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Liverpool will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

M. Dúbravka

Newcastle · G

8.5

Match Events

3'

Mohamed Salah

9'

Ozan Kabak

15'

Federico Fernández

58'

J. Milner← Diogo Jota

60'

C. Wilson← Joelinton

64'

J. Willock← C. Clark

77'

C. Jones← Thiago Alcântara

85'

D. Gayle← M. Almirón

89'

Fabinho

90'

Callum WilsonGoal cancelled

90+5'

J. Willock↳ D. Gayle

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LiverpoolNewcastle

Overview

68%Possession32%

22Total Shots7

6Corners3

9Fouls7

Shots

22Total Shots7

9On Target4

8Off Target1

5Blocked2

13Inside Box6

9Outside Box1

Passing

68%Possession32%

793Total Passes350

718Accurate Passes282

91%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

3Saves8

Discipline

9Fouls7

2Yellow Cards1

1Offsides4