Liverpool 2–0 Newcastle: Result & Stats

Liverpool

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Newcastle

J. Allen 70'

R. Sterling 9'

4/13/2015

Premier League · Round 32Anfield (Liverpool)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 25+ matches

Liverpool47%

×Draw25%

Newcastle28%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LiverpoolExpected goals in this matchNewcastle

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.18

Liverpool

1.60

Newcastle

1.18

Liverpool creates 36% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 25 away

1.93

creates per match

1.23

1.12

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Liverpool

1.93

Newcastle

1.23

allows per match

Liverpool

1.12

Newcastle

1.27

+0.13scores more than expected

finishing

-0.31scores less than expected

finishing

Liverpool+0.13scores more

Newcastle-0.31scores less

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Liverpool ↓

Newcastle →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Liverpool or draw

72%

Liverpool or Newcastle

75%

Draw or Newcastle

53%

Winning margin

Liverpool wins by 2+

24%

Newcastle wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Liverpool 1+ goals

80%

Liverpool 2+ goals

47%

Liverpool 3+ goals

22%

Newcastle 1+ goals

69%

Newcastle 2+ goals

33%

Newcastle 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Liverpool (draw refunded)

63%

Newcastle (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Liverpool at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.12 · 33 matches

Newcastle away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.27 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Liverpool attack 1.93 + Newcastle defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.60

Newcastle attack 1.23 + Liverpool defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Liverpool scores more

47%

level

25%

Newcastle scores more

28%

Liverpool at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Liverpool will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

R. Sterling↳ J. Henderson

58'

F. Borini← J. Ibe

67'

J. Gutiérrez← G. Obertan

70'

J. Allen

75'

A. Armstrong← M. Abeid

86'

Y. Gouffran← Ayoze Pérez

89'

R. Lambert← R. Sterling

Liverpool

Newcastle

1

4

6

22

7

8

14

20

30

▼

Abeid

25

▼

Obertan

17

▼

22

2

6

18

21

24

⚽

Allen

14

A

Henderson

10

Coutinho

23

Can

31

⚽

▼

Sterling

33

▼

Ibe

58'▲F. Borini←▼J. Ibe

89'▲R. Lambert←▼R. Sterling

Liverpool substitutes

29Borini9Lambert50Marković19Manquillo32Brannagan1Jones4Touré

67'▲J. Gutiérrez←▼G. Obertan

75'▲A. Armstrong←▼M. Abeid

86'▲Y. Gouffran←▼Ayoze Pérez

Newcastle substitutes

18Gutiérrez32Armstrong11Gouffran28Ameobi46Sterry21Elliot29Rivière