Liverpool 3–0 Middlesbrough: Result & Stats

Liverpool

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Middlesbrough

A. Lallana 56'

Philippe Coutinho 51'

G. Wijnaldum 45+1'

5/21/2017

Premier League · Round 38Anfield

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Liverpool66%

×Draw21%

Middlesbrough13%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LiverpoolExpected goals in this matchMiddlesbrough

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

0.69

Liverpool

1.90

Middlesbrough

0.69

Liverpool creates 175% more chances

Season form · 198 home / 19 away

2.21

creates per match

0.53

0.84

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Liverpool

2.21

Middlesbrough

0.53

allows per match

Liverpool

0.84

Middlesbrough

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Liverpool+0.00on par

Middlesbrough+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Liverpool ↓

Middlesbrough →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Liverpool or draw

87%

Liverpool or Middlesbrough

79%

Draw or Middlesbrough

34%

Winning margin

Liverpool wins by 2+

40%

Middlesbrough wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Liverpool 1+ goals

85%

Liverpool 2+ goals

56%

Liverpool 3+ goals

29%

Middlesbrough 1+ goals

50%

Middlesbrough 2+ goals

15%

Middlesbrough 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Liverpool (draw refunded)

84%

Middlesbrough (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Liverpool at home — creates 2.21, concedes 0.84 · 198 matches

Middlesbrough away — creates 0.53, concedes 1.58 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Liverpool attack 2.21 + Middlesbrough defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.90

Middlesbrough attack 0.53 + Liverpool defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Liverpool scores more

66%

level

21%

Middlesbrough scores more

13%

Liverpool at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Liverpool will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Philippe Coutinho

Liverpool · M

8.9

Match Events

45+1'

G. Wijnaldum↳ Roberto Firmino

51'

Philippe Coutinho

56'

Rudy Gestede

56'

A. Lallana↳ G. Wijnaldum

73'

Daniel Ayala← Fábio

73'

Álvaro Negredo← R. Gestede

79'

Lucas Leiva← Roberto Firmino

82'

D. Origi← D. Sturridge

86'

Alberto Moreno← J. Milner

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LiverpoolMiddlesbrough

Overview

73%Possession27%

25Total Shots9

3Corners3

13Fouls8

Shots

25Total Shots9

10On Target3

9Off Target3

6Blocked3

12Inside Box6

13Outside Box3

Passing

73%Possession27%

752Total Passes260

670Accurate Passes174

89%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

3Saves7

Discipline

13Fouls8

0Yellow Cards1

1Offsides0