Liverpool 1–4 Manchester City: Result & Stats

Liverpool

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 0

Manchester City

Mohamed Salah 63' (pen)

P. Foden 83'

R. Sterling 76'

İ. Gündoğan 73', 49'

2/7/2021

Premier League · Round 23Anfield

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 32+ matches

Liverpool40%

×Draw24%

Manchester City35%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LiverpoolExpected goals in this matchManchester City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.45

Liverpool

1.56

Manchester City

1.45

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 33 home / 32 away

1.93

creates per match

1.78

1.12

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Liverpool

1.93

Manchester City

1.78

allows per match

Liverpool

1.12

Manchester City

1.20

+0.13scores more than expected

finishing

-0.25scores less than expected

finishing

Liverpool+0.13scores more

Manchester City-0.25scores less

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Liverpool ↓

Manchester City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Liverpool or draw

65%

Liverpool or Manchester City

76%

Draw or Manchester City

60%

Winning margin

Liverpool wins by 2+

20%

Manchester City wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Liverpool 1+ goals

79%

Liverpool 2+ goals

46%

Liverpool 3+ goals

21%

Manchester City 1+ goals

77%

Manchester City 2+ goals

42%

Manchester City 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Liverpool (draw refunded)

53%

Manchester City (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Liverpool at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.12 · 33 matches

Manchester City away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.20 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Liverpool attack 1.93 + Manchester City defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.56

Manchester City attack 1.78 + Liverpool defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Liverpool scores more

40%

level

24%

Manchester City scores more

35%

Liverpool at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Liverpool will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

47

P. Foden

Manchester City · F

8.3

Match Events

3'

Thiago Alcántara

41'

Mohamed SalahGoal cancelled

49'

İ. Gündoğan

62'

Rúben Dias

63'

Mohamed SalahPenalty

68'

X. Shaqiri← Thiago Alcântara

68'

J. Milner← C. Jones

70'

Fabinho

71'

John StonesPenalty confirmed

72'

Gabriel Jesus← R. Mahrez

73'

İ. Gündoğan↳ P. Foden

76'

R. Sterling↳ Bernardo Silva

83'

P. Foden↳ Gabriel Jesus

85'

K. Tsimikas← A. Robertson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LiverpoolManchester

Overview

55%Possession45%

8Total Shots8

6Corners1

13Fouls8

Shots

8Total Shots8

3On Target5

2Off Target3

3Blocked0

5Inside Box6

3Outside Box2

Passing

55%Possession45%

649Total Passes519

573Accurate Passes444

88%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls8

2Yellow Cards1

1Offsides2