Liverpool 5–0 Huddersfield: Result & Stats

Liverpool

FT

5 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Huddersfield

Mohamed Salah 83', 45+1'

S. Mané 66', 23'

N. Keïta 1'

4/26/2019

Premier League · Round 36Anfield

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Liverpool70%

×Draw19%

Huddersfield12%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LiverpoolExpected goals in this matchHuddersfield

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

0.73

Liverpool

2.13

Huddersfield

0.73

Liverpool creates 192% more chances

Season form · 198 home / 38 away

2.21

creates per match

0.63

0.84

allows per match

2.05

creates per match

Liverpool

2.21

Huddersfield

0.63

allows per match

Liverpool

0.84

Huddersfield

2.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Liverpool+0.00on par

Huddersfield+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Liverpool ↓

Huddersfield →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–110%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Liverpool or draw

88%

Liverpool or Huddersfield

81%

Draw or Huddersfield

30%

Winning margin

Liverpool wins by 2+

45%

Huddersfield wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Liverpool 1+ goals

88%

Liverpool 2+ goals

63%

Liverpool 3+ goals

35%

Huddersfield 1+ goals

52%

Huddersfield 2+ goals

17%

Huddersfield 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Liverpool (draw refunded)

86%

Huddersfield (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Liverpool at home — creates 2.21, concedes 0.84 · 198 matches

Huddersfield away — creates 0.63, concedes 2.05 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Liverpool attack 2.21 + Huddersfield defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 2.13

Huddersfield attack 0.63 + Liverpool defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Liverpool scores more

70%

level

19%

Huddersfield scores more

12%

Liverpool at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Liverpool will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

Mohamed Salah

Liverpool · F

9.6

Match Events

1'

N. Keïta↳ Mohamed Salah

23'

S. Mané↳ A. Robertson

45+1'

Mohamed Salah↳ T. Alexander-Arnold

65'

C. Löwe← S. Mounié

66'

S. Mané↳ J. Henderson

73'

A. Oxlade-Chamberlain← D. Sturridge

73'

X. Shaqiri← G. Wijnaldum

81'

A. Pritchard← J. Stankovič

83'

Mohamed Salah↳ A. Robertson

87'

E. Kachunga← I. Mbenza

88'

J. Gomez← T. Alexander-Arnold

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LiverpoolHuddersfield

Overview

70%Possession30%

21Total Shots5

4Corners4

5Fouls14

Shots

21Total Shots5

7On Target1

12Off Target2

2Blocked2

14Inside Box3

7Outside Box2

Passing

70%Possession30%

726Total Passes306

638Accurate Passes211

88%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

5Fouls14

2Offsides4