Liverpool 9–0 Bournemouth: Result & Stats

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LiverpoolExpected goals in this matchBournemouth

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

1.33

Liverpool

1.90

Bournemouth

1.33

Liverpool creates 43% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 29 away

1.93

creates per match

1.53

1.12

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Liverpool

1.93

Bournemouth

1.53

allows per match

Liverpool

1.12

Bournemouth

1.88

+0.13scores more than expected

finishing

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

Liverpool+0.13scores more

Bournemouth-0.12scores less

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Liverpool ↓

Bournemouth →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Liverpool or draw

73%

Liverpool or Bournemouth

78%

Draw or Bournemouth

49%

Winning margin

Liverpool wins by 2+

29%

Bournemouth wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Liverpool 1+ goals

85%

Liverpool 2+ goals

56%

Liverpool 3+ goals

29%

Bournemouth 1+ goals

74%

Bournemouth 2+ goals

38%

Bournemouth 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Liverpool (draw refunded)

65%

Bournemouth (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Liverpool at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.12 · 33 matches

Bournemouth away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.88 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Liverpool attack 1.93 + Bournemouth defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.90

Bournemouth attack 1.53 + Liverpool defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Liverpool scores more

51%

level

22%

Bournemouth scores more

27%

Liverpool at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Liverpool will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

Roberto Firmino

Liverpool · F

9.6

Match Events

3'

L. Díaz↳ Roberto Firmino

4'

Luis DíazGoal confirmed

6'

H. Elliott↳ Roberto Firmino

28'

T. Alexander-Arnold↳ Roberto Firmino

31'

Roberto Firmino

35'

Adam Smith

45'

V. van Dijk↳ A. Robertson

46'

Fábio Carvalho← H. Elliott

46'

P. Billing← R. Christie

46'

D. Solanke← A. Smith

46'

C. MephamOwn goal

48'

Chris MephamGoal confirmed

62'

Roberto Firmino

69'

K. Tsimikas← A. Robertson

69'

J. Milner← Roberto Firmino

70'

Stefan Bajčetić← J. Henderson

77'

B. Pearson← L. Cook

80'

Fábio Carvalho↳ K. Tsimikas

82'

E. Marcondes← B. Pearson

82'

O. Bevan← C. Mepham

83'

B. Clark← T. Alexander-Arnold

85'

L. Díaz↳ K. Tsimikas

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LiverpoolBournemouth

Overview

69%Possession31%

19Total Shots5

8Corners1

6Fouls5

Shots

19Total Shots5

12On Target2

6Off Target2

1Blocked1

16Inside Box3

3Outside Box2

Passing

69%Possession31%

681Total Passes303

589Accurate Passes211

86%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

6Fouls5

0Yellow Cards1

3Offsides0