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Liverpool U19 vs Rangers U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Liverpool U19
Liverpool U19
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Rangers U19
Rangers U19
10/4/2022UEFA Youth LeagueUEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 3Liverpool’s Academy Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Liverpool U1959%
×Draw19%
Rangers U1922%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Liverpool U19
2.54
Rangers U19
1.51

Liverpool U19 creates 68% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 7 away

creates per match

Liverpool U19
2.93
Rangers U19
2.29

allows per match

Liverpool U19
0.73
Rangers U19
2.14

finishing

Liverpool U19+0.00on par
Rangers U19+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Liverpool U19 ↓

Rangers U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Liverpool U19 or draw
78%
Liverpool U19 or Rangers U19
81%
Draw or Rangers U19
41%

Winning margin

Liverpool U19 wins by 2+
39%
Rangers U19 wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Liverpool U19 1+ goals
92%
Liverpool U19 2+ goals
72%
Liverpool U19 3+ goals
46%
Rangers U19 1+ goals
78%
Rangers U19 2+ goals
44%
Rangers U19 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Liverpool U19 (draw refunded)
73%
Rangers U19 (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Liverpool U19 at home — creates 2.93, concedes 0.73 · 15 matches

Rangers U19 away — creates 2.29, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Liverpool U19 attack 2.93 + Rangers U19 defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 2.54

Rangers U19 attack 2.29 + Liverpool U19 defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Liverpool U19 scores more
59%
level
19%
Rangers U19 scores more
22%

Liverpool U19 at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Liverpool U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liverpool U19 4 – 1 Rangers U19

Liverpool U19 beat Rangers U19 4-1 in UEFA Youth League on October 4, 2022.

The match was played at Liverpool’s Academy Ground in Knowsley, Merseyside.