Liverpool Montevideo 1–1 Racing Montevideo

Liverpool Montevideo

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Racing Montevideo

S. Núñez 9'

A. Alaniz 5'

8/17/2024

League #270 · Clausura - 1Estadio Belvedere

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Liverpool Montevideo43%

×Draw25%

Racing Montevideo32%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Liverpool MontevideoExpected goals in this matchRacing Montevideo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.25

Liverpool Montevideo

1.50

Racing Montevideo

1.25

Liverpool Montevideo creates 20% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 7 away

1.30

creates per match

1.29

1.20

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Liverpool Montevideo

1.30

Racing Montevideo

1.29

allows per match

Liverpool Montevideo

1.20

Racing Montevideo

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Liverpool Montevideo+0.00on par

Racing Montevideo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Liverpool Montevideo ↓

Racing Montevideo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Liverpool Montevideo or draw

68%

Liverpool Montevideo or Racing Montevideo

75%

Draw or Racing Montevideo

57%

Winning margin

Liverpool Montevideo wins by 2+

21%

Racing Montevideo wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Liverpool Montevideo 1+ goals

78%

Liverpool Montevideo 2+ goals

44%

Liverpool Montevideo 3+ goals

19%

Racing Montevideo 1+ goals

71%

Racing Montevideo 2+ goals

36%

Racing Montevideo 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Liverpool Montevideo (draw refunded)

58%

Racing Montevideo (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Liverpool Montevideo at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

Racing Montevideo away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Liverpool Montevideo attack 1.30 + Racing Montevideo defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.50

Racing Montevideo attack 1.29 + Liverpool Montevideo defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Liverpool Montevideo scores more

43%

level

25%

Racing Montevideo scores more

32%

Liverpool Montevideo at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Liverpool Montevideo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

9'

35'

35'

37'

63'

L. Olavarría← L. Acosta

64'

Jonathan Urretaviscaya

68'

H. Silveira← J. Urretaviscaya

76'

Guillermo Cotugno

83'

J. Rivero← T. Verón

83'

M. Cáceres← J. Varela

83'

A. Severo← A. Alaniz

86'

E. Olivera← H. Quintana

86'

L. Lemos← L. Aued

86'

H. Vergara← D. García

87'

R. Machado← S. Núñez

88'

Dylan Nandín

90+7'

Lucas Lemos

Liverpool4-4-2

Racing4-4-2

27

▼

Verón

9

Nandín

20

▼

Urretavis

21

Rodríguez

7

▼

Varela

18

⚽

▼

17

5

3

4

25

21

23

2

27

24

17

8

▼

Quintana

11

▼

Aued

22

▼

García

16

▼

Acosta

19

⚽

▼

Núñez

Manager: E. Alfaro

63'▲L. Olavarría←▼L. Acosta

86'▲E. Olivera←▼H. Quintana

86'▲L. Lemos←▼L. Aued

86'▲H. Vergara←▼D. García

87'▲R. Machado←▼S. Núñez

Liverpool Montevideo substitutes

29Olavarría6Olivera5Lemos20Vergara9Machado13Luca18Cayetano25Gómez31Wasilewsky3Poiso

Manager: E. Espinel

68'▲H. Silveira←▼J. Urretaviscaya

83'▲J. Rivero←▼T. Verón

83'▲M. Cáceres←▼J. Varela

83'▲A. Severo←▼A. Alaniz

Racing Montevideo substitutes

26Silveira10Rivero15Cáceres22Severo1Bacchia8Gorocito29Hernández32Espinosa33Peralta24Teliz