Liverpool Montevideo 3–1 Fenix: Result & Stats

Liverpool Montevideo

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Fenix

A. Medina 60'

F. Pereira 53'

M. Cabrera 28'

M. Ferreira 71'

2/20/2023

Primera División - Apertura · Apertura - 3Estadio Belvedere

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Liverpool Montevideo50%

×Draw27%

Fenix23%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Liverpool MontevideoExpected goals in this matchFenix

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

0.85

Liverpool Montevideo

1.41

Fenix

0.85

Liverpool Montevideo creates 66% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 3 away

1.48

creates per match

0.67

1.04

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Liverpool Montevideo

1.48

Fenix

0.67

allows per match

Liverpool Montevideo

1.04

Fenix

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Liverpool Montevideo+0.00on par

Fenix+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Liverpool Montevideo ↓

Fenix →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Liverpool Montevideo or draw

77%

Liverpool Montevideo or Fenix

73%

Draw or Fenix

50%

Winning margin

Liverpool Montevideo wins by 2+

25%

Fenix wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Liverpool Montevideo 1+ goals

76%

Liverpool Montevideo 2+ goals

41%

Liverpool Montevideo 3+ goals

17%

Fenix 1+ goals

57%

Fenix 2+ goals

21%

Fenix 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Liverpool Montevideo (draw refunded)

69%

Fenix (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Liverpool Montevideo at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.04 · 25 matches

Fenix away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Liverpool Montevideo attack 1.48 + Fenix defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.41

Fenix attack 0.67 + Liverpool Montevideo defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Liverpool Montevideo scores more

50%

level

27%

Fenix scores more

23%

Liverpool Montevideo at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Liverpool Montevideo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'

33'

48'

53'

58'

58'

M. Ferreira← E. Carlos

60'

A. Medina

61'

Gonzalo Vega

63'

L. Rodríguez← M. Cabrera

67'

Sebastian Diana

69'

G. Alles← S. da Silva

70'

71'

77'

77'

80'

89'

90+1'

L. Otormín← R. Rivero

Shots

Statistics

LiverpoolFenix

Overview

9Total Shots12

3Corners6

8Fouls13

Shots

9Total Shots12

5On Target4

3Off Target8

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

8Fouls13

0Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards0

1Offsides3

Match Recap: Liverpool Montevideo vs Fenix

Liverpool Montevideo beat Fenix 3-1 in Primera División - Apertura on February 20, 2023.

Goals: M. Cabrera (28'), F. Pereira (53'), A. Medina (60'), M. Ferreira (71').

The match was played at Estadio Belvedere in Montevideo.

Liverpool Montevideo vs Fenix — Primera División - Apertura 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Shots

Statistics

Match Recap: Liverpool Montevideo vs Fenix