Liverpool Feds W 0–2 Sheffield United W

Liverpool Feds W

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Sheffield United W

12/8/2024

FA Women's Cup · 3rd RoundJericho Lane Sports Hub

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Liverpool Feds W47%

×Draw21%

Sheffield United W32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Liverpool Feds WExpected goals in this matchSheffield United W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.11

1.72

Liverpool Feds W

2.11

Sheffield United W

1.72

Liverpool Feds W creates 23% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

1.89

creates per match

2.22

1.22

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

Liverpool Feds W

1.89

Sheffield United W

2.22

allows per match

Liverpool Feds W

1.22

Sheffield United W

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Liverpool Feds W+0.00on par

Sheffield United W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Liverpool Feds W ↓

Sheffield United W →

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Liverpool Feds W or draw

68%

Liverpool Feds W or Sheffield United W

79%

Draw or Sheffield United W

53%

Winning margin

Liverpool Feds W wins by 2+

27%

Sheffield United W wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Liverpool Feds W 1+ goals

88%

Liverpool Feds W 2+ goals

62%

Liverpool Feds W 3+ goals

35%

Sheffield United W 1+ goals

82%

Sheffield United W 2+ goals

51%

Sheffield United W 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Liverpool Feds W (draw refunded)

59%

Sheffield United W (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Liverpool Feds W at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

Sheffield United W away — creates 2.22, concedes 2.33 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Liverpool Feds W attack 1.89 + Sheffield United W defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.11

Sheffield United W attack 2.22 + Liverpool Feds W defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 47%?"

Liverpool Feds W scores more

47%

level

21%

Sheffield United W scores more

32%

Liverpool Feds W at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Liverpool Feds W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff