Liverpool Feds W 2–3 Huddersfield Town W

Liverpool Feds W

AET

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Huddersfield Town W

1/3/2021

FA Women's Cup · 2nd RoundSouth Liverpool Football Hub

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Liverpool Feds W55%

×Draw21%

Huddersfield Town W24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Liverpool Feds WExpected goals in this matchHuddersfield Town W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

1.36

Liverpool Feds W

2.13

Huddersfield Town W

1.36

Liverpool Feds W creates 57% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 8 away

1.89

creates per match

1.50

1.22

allows per match

2.38

creates per match

Liverpool Feds W

1.89

Huddersfield Town W

1.50

allows per match

Liverpool Feds W

1.22

Huddersfield Town W

2.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Liverpool Feds W+0.00on par

Huddersfield Town W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Liverpool Feds W ↓

Huddersfield Town W →

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Liverpool Feds W or draw

76%

Liverpool Feds W or Huddersfield Town W

79%

Draw or Huddersfield Town W

45%

Winning margin

Liverpool Feds W wins by 2+

33%

Huddersfield Town W wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Liverpool Feds W 1+ goals

88%

Liverpool Feds W 2+ goals

63%

Liverpool Feds W 3+ goals

35%

Huddersfield Town W 1+ goals

74%

Huddersfield Town W 2+ goals

39%

Huddersfield Town W 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Liverpool Feds W (draw refunded)

69%

Huddersfield Town W (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Liverpool Feds W at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

Huddersfield Town W away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Liverpool Feds W attack 1.89 + Huddersfield Town W defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 2.13

Huddersfield Town W attack 1.50 + Liverpool Feds W defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 55%?"

Liverpool Feds W scores more

55%

level

21%

Huddersfield Town W scores more

24%

Liverpool Feds W at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Liverpool Feds W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff