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Liverpool Feds W vs Boldmere St. Michaels W — FA Women's Cup 2019

Liverpool Feds W
Liverpool Feds W
FT
5 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Boldmere St. Michaels W
Boldmere St. Michaels W
11/23/2025FA Women's CupFA Women's Cup · 2nd Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Liverpool Feds W50%
×Draw21%
Boldmere St. Michaels W29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Liverpool Feds W
2.09
Boldmere St. Michaels W
1.54

Liverpool Feds W creates 36% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 7 away

creates per match

Liverpool Feds W
1.89
Boldmere St. Michaels W
1.86

allows per match

Liverpool Feds W
1.22
Boldmere St. Michaels W
2.29

finishing

Liverpool Feds W+0.00on par
Boldmere St. Michaels W+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Liverpool Feds W ↓

Boldmere St. Michaels W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Liverpool Feds W or draw
71%
Liverpool Feds W or Boldmere St. Michaels W
79%
Draw or Boldmere St. Michaels W
50%

Winning margin

Liverpool Feds W wins by 2+
29%
Boldmere St. Michaels W wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Liverpool Feds W 1+ goals
88%
Liverpool Feds W 2+ goals
62%
Liverpool Feds W 3+ goals
34%
Boldmere St. Michaels W 1+ goals
79%
Boldmere St. Michaels W 2+ goals
45%
Boldmere St. Michaels W 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Liverpool Feds W (draw refunded)
64%
Boldmere St. Michaels W (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Liverpool Feds W at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

Boldmere St. Michaels W away — creates 1.86, concedes 2.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Liverpool Feds W attack 1.89 + Boldmere St. Michaels W defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.09

Boldmere St. Michaels W attack 1.86 + Liverpool Feds W defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Liverpool Feds W scores more
50%
level
21%
Boldmere St. Michaels W scores more
29%

Liverpool Feds W at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Liverpool Feds W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Women's Cup: Liverpool Feds W 5–0 Boldmere St. Michaels W

Liverpool Feds W beat Boldmere St. Michaels W 5-0 in FA Women's Cup on November 23, 2025.