Liverpool Feds W 0–1 Blackburn Rovers W

Liverpool Feds W

0 – 1

Blackburn Rovers W

12/12/2021

FA Women's Cup · 3rd RoundJericho Lane Sports Hub

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Liverpool Feds W59%

×Draw18%

Blackburn Rovers W23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Liverpool Feds WExpected goals in this matchBlackburn Rovers W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.69

1.67

Liverpool Feds W

2.69

Blackburn Rovers W

1.67

Liverpool Feds W creates 61% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 8 away

1.89

creates per match

2.13

1.22

allows per match

3.50

creates per match

Liverpool Feds W

1.89

Blackburn Rovers W

2.13

allows per match

Liverpool Feds W

1.22

Blackburn Rovers W

3.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Liverpool Feds W+0.00on par

Blackburn Rovers W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over81
Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Liverpool Feds W ↓

Blackburn Rovers W →

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–04%

1–16%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4–03%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

81%19%3.5

63%37%4.5

43%57%

Double chance

Liverpool Feds W or draw

77%

Liverpool Feds W or Blackburn Rovers W

82%

Draw or Blackburn Rovers W

41%

Winning margin

Liverpool Feds W wins by 2+

39%

Blackburn Rovers W wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Liverpool Feds W 1+ goals

93%

Liverpool Feds W 2+ goals

74%

Liverpool Feds W 3+ goals

49%

Blackburn Rovers W 1+ goals

81%

Blackburn Rovers W 2+ goals

50%

Blackburn Rovers W 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Liverpool Feds W (draw refunded)

72%

Blackburn Rovers W (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

70%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Liverpool Feds W at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

Blackburn Rovers W away — creates 2.13, concedes 3.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Liverpool Feds W attack 1.89 + Blackburn Rovers W defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 2.69

Blackburn Rovers W attack 2.13 + Liverpool Feds W defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 59%?"

Liverpool Feds W scores more

59%

level

18%

Blackburn Rovers W scores more

23%

Liverpool Feds W at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Liverpool Feds W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Liverpool Feds W vs Blackburn Rovers W

Blackburn Rovers W beat Liverpool Feds W 1-0 in FA Women's Cup on December 12, 2021.

The match was played at Jericho Lane Sports Hub in Liverpool, Merseyside.

Liverpool Feds W vs Blackburn Rovers W — FA Women's Cup 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Liverpool Feds W vs Blackburn Rovers W