Lithuania W 1–0 Faroe Islands W: Result & Stats

Lithuania W

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Faroe Islands W

R. Jonusaite 38'

10/24/2025

Friendlies Women · FriendliesRaudondvario stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Lithuania W64%

×Draw20%

Faroe Islands W16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lithuania WExpected goals in this matchFaroe Islands W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.18

1.00

Lithuania W

2.18

Faroe Islands W

1.00

Lithuania W creates 118% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 9 away

2.25

creates per match

1.00

allows per match

2.11

creates per match

Lithuania W

2.25

Faroe Islands W

1.00

allows per match

Lithuania W

1.00

Faroe Islands W

2.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lithuania W+0.00on par

Faroe Islands W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lithuania W ↓

Faroe Islands W →

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–09%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Lithuania W or draw

84%

Lithuania W or Faroe Islands W

80%

Draw or Faroe Islands W

36%

Winning margin

Lithuania W wins by 2+

41%

Faroe Islands W wins by 2+

Team goals

Lithuania W 1+ goals

89%

Lithuania W 2+ goals

64%

Lithuania W 3+ goals

37%

Faroe Islands W 1+ goals

63%

Faroe Islands W 2+ goals

26%

Faroe Islands W 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Lithuania W (draw refunded)

80%

Faroe Islands W (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Lithuania W at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Faroe Islands W away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Lithuania W attack 2.25 + Faroe Islands W defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 2.18

Faroe Islands W attack 1.00 + Lithuania W defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 64%?"

Lithuania W scores more

64%

level

20%

Faroe Islands W scores more

16%

Lithuania W at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Lithuania W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'

R. Jonusaite

Lithuania

Faroe

⚽

Manager: T. Ražanauskas

Lithuania W substitutes

1Bikute12Curukova2Vaiciulaityte3Kubiliute5Jasaityte8Supelyte15Lekaviciute16Svarcaite17Bernotaite18Andrijevskyte19Valikoniene23Rogaciova

Manager: P. Clementsen

Faroe Islands W substitutes

1Joensen2Sondum4Jacobsen9Sorensen10Johansen14Rasmusdottir16Braendstrup17Mohr21Johannesen

Match Recap: Lithuania W vs Faroe Islands W

Lithuania W beat Faroe Islands W 1-0 in Friendlies Women on October 24, 2025.

Goals: R. Jonusaite (38').

The match was played at Raudondvario stadionas in Raudondvario.

Lithuania W vs Faroe Islands W — Friendlies Women 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Lithuania W vs Faroe Islands W